新研究揭示了人類流動性應對極端城市洪水的韌性模式
New study reveals the resilience patterns of human mobility in response to extreme urban floods
發表日期：2023-6-5
作者：National Science Review；翻譯：柯端榕；校稿：林詩軒
引用來源：https://phys.org/news/2023-06-reveals-resilience-patterns-human-mobility.html
『參考要點』: 一項最近的研究揭示了在極端城市洪水事件中，人類移動呈現反直覺的韌性模式，並且根據性別和年齡群體存在顯著差異。該研究強調了在災難規劃和因應工作中考慮人口統計數據的重要性，並提供了在洪水引發緊急情況下非尋常的集體移動行為的洞察。
『相關字彙』：resilience patterns（韌性模式）、human mobility（人類移動）、 extreme urban floods（極端城市洪水）、vulnerable groups（弱勢群體）、demographic data（人口統計數據）
韌性可以解釋成一個系統對外部或內部干擾和衝擊的準備、吸收和恢復的綜合能力。因此，在人類流動的背景下，韌性指的是人們在城市內部和城市之間的流動以因應和調適破壞性災害的能力，例如，自然災害。
Resilience can be interpreted as the comprehensive ability of a system to prepare for, absorb, and recover from external or internal disturbances and shocks. In the context of human mobility, resilience therefore refers to the ability of people's movements within and between cities to cope with and adapt to disruptive events, such as natural disasters.
2021年7月20日，中國河南省鄭州地區發生了一場創紀錄的暴雨，該地內陸地區人口密集，總面積為7,600平方公里，擁有1,270萬居民和79.1%的城市化率。該地區位於半乾旱地區，以其相對較低的年平均降水量聞名。
On July 20, 2021, a record-breaking heavy rainfall occurred in the Zhengzhou region, Henan province, China, an inland densely-populated region with a total area of 7600 km2, 12.7 million residents, and a 79.1% urbanization rate. The region is located in a semiarid area and is known for its relatively low average annual precipitation.
這場突如其來的暴雨導致了一場天災，造成公眾大量傷亡和基礎設施系統損失，380人死亡近200萬人受到影響。這次中國中部的天災迅速引起了全球廣泛關注。
This unexpected heavy rainfall led to an extreme urban flood, causing massive injuries to the public and losses in critical infrastructure systems, with a death toll of 380; nearly two million people were affected. Very quickly, this apocalyptic event in central China drew extensive attention globally.
中國北京大學、河南大學和國家重點測繪中心的研究人員利用鄭州「720」洪水期間由435萬人產生的13.2億條手機訊號記錄，共同分析了「720」期間人們的流動性如何因應這洪災。
Using 1.32 billion mobile phone signaling records generated by 4.35 million people during the "720" Zhengzhou flood event, researchers from Peking University, Henan University, and Key National Geomatics Center of China jointly analyzed how people's mobility responded to this extreme urban flood disaster during the 2021 summer.
該研究的首席作者、中國北京大學城市規劃與設計學院院長趙鵬軍教授表示：「由於移動電話大數據和先進的數據挖掘技術的日益普及，我們現在可以揭露更多關於人們如何集體移動和因應這次前所未有的城市洪水災害的細節。」
"Owing to the growing availability of mobile phone big data and advanced data mining techniques, we can now uncover more details regarding how people collectively moved and responded to this unprecedented urban flood disaster," said Professor Pengjun Zhao, the lead author of the study and the Dean of the School of Urban Planning and Design from Peking University.
誰更容易受到這次洪水事件的影響？
Who is more vulnerable to the impact of this flooding event?
根據旅行者的性別和年齡將數據進行分組後，研究發現不同群體的移動韌性存在顯著差異，女性、18歲以下青少年和60歲以上的老年人展示出相對較低的韌性，因此更容易受到洪水的影響。
By grouping data based on traveler's gender and age, the study found that there were significant differences in the mobility resilience of different groups, with female, adolescent under 18 years old, and older adults over 60 years old exhibiting relatively lower resilience and therefore being more likely to be affected by flooding.
該研究強調了在災害規劃和響應工作中考慮人口數據的重要性，因為某些群體可能需要有針對性的支持和資源才能有效減輕災害的影響。
The study highlights the importance of considering demographic data in disaster planning and response efforts, as certain groups may require targeted support and resources in order to effectively mitigate the impact of disasters
趙鵬軍教授表示：「結果從數量上說明，這些人群在活動期間保持正常出行頻率的可能性遠低於其他人群，這解釋了他們的韌性水平較低和恢復不足的原因。」
"The result quantitatively illustrates the probability of maintaining the usual travel frequency in these population groups is much lower than other groups during the event, which explains their lower resilience level and insufficient recovery," said Prof. Zhao.
人類移動中的反直覺韌性模式
Counterintuitive resilience patterns in human mobility
此外，透過分析不同地理尺度上的移動變化，該研究進一步揭露人類移動的四種不同模式。其中，發現了三種異常模式，分別是「反向浴缸曲線」、「逐漸減少曲線」和「不斷增加曲線」這些異常模式總共約佔了總面積的 50%。
Additionally, by analyzing the changes of mobility in various geographical scales, the study further unraveled four distinct patterns of human mobility. Of these modes, three abnormalities were found, namely "reversed bathtub curve," "ever-decreasing curve," and "ever-increasing curve." Together, these abnormal patterns account about 50% of the total area.
這些異常的韌性模式表明因應在這一嚴重災害時出現了非尋常的集體移動行為。該研究的第一作者、中國北京大學城市規劃與設計學院助理教授唐俊慶博士表示：「以流入情況為例，反向浴缸模式確認了這次洪水災害在某些地方刺激了流入移動，而不是抑制它。與此同時，在恢復階段，高流入移動會逐漸減少到較低水平。這可能反映了災難避難行為，即人們暫時改變出行路線選擇，在洪水期間集聚在某些新地點，但事件結束後，他們會恢復正常的路線。」
These abnormal resilience patterns indicate unusual collective mobility behaviors in response to this severe disaster. "Taking the inflow as an example, the reversed bathtub pattern confirms that this flood disaster stimulates inflow mobility instead of suppressing it in those places," said Dr. Junqing Tang, the first author of this study, Assistant Professor at the School of Urban Planning and Design. "Meanwhile, in the recovery stage, the high mobility inflow dissipates to a lower level. This could reflect disaster avoidance behaviors in which people temporarily alter their travel route choices to agglomerate at certain new spots during the flood, but after the event, they shift back to their regular routes," he added.
這些異常的韌性模式是否與旅行者的特徵相關？
Are these abnormal resilience patterns associated with traveler's characteristics?
研究團隊進一步探討了異質韌性模式與旅行者的性別和年齡屬性之間的關聯。結果表示，無論是正常還是異常的移動韌性模式，本質上都與性別或年齡無關。
The research team further explored the association between the heterogeneous resilience patterns and traveler's gender and age attributes. The results indicate that both normal and abnormal mobility resilience patterns are not essentially associated with either gender or age.
這一特殊發現意味著，在集體尺度上，人們對都市洪水做出的動態移動，無論是遵循正常還是異常的韌性模式，不能透過其性別或年齡屬性來解釋，這表明在不同人群中可能存在一種普遍的避難反應行為機制。
This particular finding implies that on a collective scale whether the dynamic human movements in response to urban floods follow a normal or abnormal resilience pattern cannot be explained by their gender or age attributes, indicating that a universal behavioral mechanism of disaster-avoidance responses might exist across populations.
鑑於旅行行為與旅行者的社會人口特徵之間的共同關聯，這一發現為探究洪水引發的緊急情況下的異常人類移動提供了潛在「警告」。該研究已經發表在《國家科學評論》期刊上。
Given the common association between travel behaviors and traveler's socio-demographical characteristics, evidence here provides a potential "heads-up" for probing unusual human mobility during flood-induced emergencies. The study is published in the journal
National Science Review.